Adam Rupe, PhD

Publications

Count: 15

• Operator-Theoretic Methods for Differential Games (2025) — Craig Bakker et al. — arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.02203, 2025
  Abstract

  Abstract Differential game theory offers an approach for modeling interactions between two or more agents that occur in continuous time. The goal of each agent is to optimize its objective cost functional. In this paper, we present two different methods, based on the Koopman Operator (KO), to solve a zero-sum differential game. The first approach uses the resolvent of the KO to calculate a continuous-time global feedback solution over the entire domain. The second approach uses a discrete-time, data-driven KO representation with control to calculate open-loop control policies one trajectory at a time. We demonstrate these methods on a turret defense game from the literature, and we find that the methods' solutions replicate the behavior of the analytical solution provided in the literature.. Following that demonstration, we highlight the relative advantages and disadvantages of each method and discuss potential future work for this line of research.
• Unsupervised discovery of extreme weather events using universal representations of emergent organization (2025) — Adam Rupe et al. — Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
  Abstract

  Spontaneous self-organization is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. While organized structures that emerge dominate transport properties, universal representations that identify and describe these key objects remain elusive. Here, we introduce a theoretically grounded framework for describing emergent organization that, via data-driven algorithms, is constructive in practice. Its building blocks are spacetime lightcones that embody how information propagates across a system through local interactions. We show that predictive equivalence classes of lightcones—local causal states—capture organized behaviors in complex spatiotemporal systems. Employing an unsupervised physics-informed machine learning algorithm and a high-performance computing implementation, we demonstrate automatically discovering organized structures in two real-world domain science problems. We show that local causal states identify vortices and track their power-law decay behavior in two-dimensional fluid turbulence. We then show how to detect and track familiar extreme weather events—hurricanes and atmospheric rivers—and discover other novel structures associated with precipitation extremes in high-resolution climate data at the grid-cell level.
• Constrained Turret Defense with Fixed Final Time (2024) — Alexander Von Moll et al. — IFAC-PapersOnLine
• On principles of emergent organization (2024) — Adam Rupe, James P. Crutchfield — Physics Reports
• Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points (2024) — Parvathi Kooloth et al. — npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
  Abstract

  Abstract Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.
• Predicting Critical Transitions in Multiscale Data (2024) — Rogene Eichler West et al. — Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States), 2024
• Algebraic Theory of Patterns as Generalized Symmetries (2022) — Adam Rupe, James P. Crutchfield — Symmetry
  Abstract

  We generalize the exact predictive regularity of symmetry groups to give an algebraic theory of patterns, building from a core principle of future equivalence. For topological patterns in fully-discrete one-dimensional systems, future equivalence uniquely specifies a minimal semiautomaton. We demonstrate how the latter and its semigroup algebra generalizes translation symmetry to partial and hidden symmetries. This generalization is not as straightforward as previously considered. Here, though, we clarify the underlying challenges. A stochastic form of future equivalence, known as predictive equivalence, captures distinct statistical patterns supported on topological patterns. Finally, we show how local versions of future equivalence can be used to capture patterns in spacetime. As common when moving to higher dimensions, there is not a unique local approach, and we detail two local representations that capture different aspects of spacetime patterns. A previously developed local spacetime variant of future equivalence captures patterns as generalized symmetries in higher dimensions, but we show that this representation is not a faithful generator of its spacetime patterns. This motivates us to introduce a local representation that is a faithful generator, but we demonstrate that it no longer captures generalized spacetime symmetries. Taken altogether, building on future equivalence, the theory defines and quantifies patterns present in a wide range of classical field theories.
• Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems (2022) — Adam Rupe, Velimir V Vesselinov, James P Crutchfield — New Journal of Physics
  Abstract

  Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.
• PNNL Technical Interview [Slides] (2022) — Adam Rupe — Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2022
• Geo Thermal Cloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources (2021) — Velimir Vesselinov et al. — Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2021
• The Search For Thermodynamic Principles of Organization [Slides] (2021) — Adam Rupe — Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2021
• Transfer Operator Framework for Earth System Predictability and Water Cycle Extremes (2021) — Adam Rupe et al. — Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2021
  Abstract

  For chaotic dynamical systems, nonlinear instabilities lead to exponentially divergent trajectories in the evolution of system states. Unless a simulation is initialized with an infinite-precision snapshot of the state of the true system and all known physical effects that go into its evolution are directly computed, the future state predicted by the simulation will quickly diverge from that of the true system. Moreover, the Earth system is highly structured and contains localized coherent structures that are particularly important to predict. Predicting extreme events associated with coherent structures, like hurricanes and blocking events, is crucial for understanding the effects of global warming on the water cycle.
• DisCo: Physics-Based Unsupervised Discovery of Coherent Structures in Spatiotemporal Systems (2019) — Adam Rupe et al. — 2019 IEEE/ACM Workshop on Machine Learning in High Performance Computing Environments (MLHPC)
• Koopman operator and its approximations for systems with symmetries (2019) — Anastasiya Salova et al. — Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
  Abstract

  Nonlinear dynamical systems with symmetries exhibit a rich variety of behaviors, often described by complex attractor-basin portraits and enhanced and suppressed bifurcations. Symmetry arguments provide a way to study these collective behaviors and to simplify their analysis. The Koopman operator is an infinite dimensional linear operator that fully captures a system’s nonlinear dynamics through the linear evolution of functions of the state space. Importantly, in contrast with local linearization, it preserves a system’s global nonlinear features. We demonstrate how the presence of symmetries affects the Koopman operator structure and its spectral properties. In fact, we show that symmetry considerations can also simplify finding the Koopman operator approximations using the extended and kernel dynamic mode decomposition methods (EDMD and kernel DMD). Specifically, representation theory allows us to demonstrate that an isotypic component basis induces a block diagonal structure in operator approximations, revealing hidden organization. Practically, if the symmetries are known, the EDMD and kernel DMD methods can be modified to give more efficient computation of the Koopman operator approximation and its eigenvalues, eigenfunctions, and eigenmodes. Rounding out the development, we discuss the effect of measurement noise.
• Local causal states and discrete coherent structures (2018) — Adam Rupe, James P. Crutchfield — Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
  Abstract

  Coherent structures form spontaneously in nonlinear spatiotemporal systems and are found at all spatial scales in natural phenomena from laboratory hydrodynamic flows and chemical reactions to ocean, atmosphere, and planetary climate dynamics. Phenomenologically, they appear as key components that organize the macroscopic behaviors in such systems. Despite a century of effort, they have eluded rigorous analysis and empirical prediction, with progress being made only recently. As a step in this, we present a formal theory of coherent structures in fully discrete dynamical field theories. It builds on the notion of structure introduced by computational mechanics, generalizing it to a local spatiotemporal setting. The analysis’ main tool employs the local causal states, which are used to uncover a system’s hidden spatiotemporal symmetries and which identify coherent structures as spatially localized deviations from those symmetries. The approach is behavior-driven in the sense that it does not rely on directly analyzing spatiotemporal equations of motion, rather it considers only the spatiotemporal fields a system generates. As such, it offers an unsupervised approach to discover and describe coherent structures. We illustrate the approach by analyzing coherent structures generated by elementary cellular automata, comparing the results with an earlier, dynamic-invariant-set approach that decomposes fields into domains, particles, and particle interactions.